Published April 15, 2026
By Delphine Lévi Alvarès, Global Petrochemicals Campaign Manager at the Center for International Environmental Law.
As the global community gathers for the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, the conversation has shifted from whether to phase out fossil fuels to the urgent task of when and how to implement a managed, funded, and equitable phaseout. Yet, for this implementation to be effective, it must confront the rapid growth of petrochemicals and tackle their proliferation. As a less visible, but equally aggressive strategy, the fossil fuel industry is deploying petrochemicals to create markets for non-energy uses of the same fossil fuels. While policy has long targeted the fuels powering transport and energy, a full phaseout is only possible if we address this ultimate industry survival tactic.
Petrochemicals: The Critical Gap in Climate Policy
While “fossil fuel” describes what we burn, petrochemicals represent the feedstock for our modern economy. Derived primarily from oil and gas, but also from coal, these chemicals — such as ethylene and ammonia — serve as the foundation for synthetic materials like plastics and fertilizers, which account for three-quarters of the sector’s output.
As these products underpin everything from global food systems to technological infrastructure, fossil fuels have become woven into the fabric of our social existence — often rendering them invisible to policy. Santa Marta provides a pivotal opportunity to address how fossil fuels — hidden in plain sight — are expanding through petrochemicals. A just transition remains impossible if the industry is permitted to simply shift its business model from burning oil as fuel to locking it into synthetic materials.
How Petrochemical Expansion Locks in Fossil Fuel Demand
At stake at Santa Marta is the risk of a massive physical lock-in of fossil fuel demand. Petrochemical expansion is a deliberate strategy to ensure that even as the world moves away from fossil fuels for energy, it remains tethered to them for materials. In recent years, petrochemical feedstock has accounted for almost all of oil demand growth, comprising nearly 16 percent of oil demand in 2024, and is projected to increase to over 17 percent by 2030.
This lifeline is manifesting in a massive infrastructure build-out. Estimates suggest that over 120 projects to produce polyethylene — the world’s most common form of plastic — will come online by 2030. These facilities require decades of high-volume fossil fuel inputs to remain profitable, forcing continued dependence that effectively anchors the fossil economy in place for decades to come.
Beyond physical infrastructure, the industry is proactively repositioning itself as a “transition enabler” to justify the continued use of fossil assets. For example, presenting ammonia produced with carbon capture (“blue ammonia”) as a potential “zero-carbon” shipping fuel provides cover for maintaining and expanding fossil infrastructure. Similarly, in some countries, ammonia is being advertised as a way to allegedly reduce emissions and extend the life of aging power plants by burning it alongside coal. These are not genuine solutions; they are greenwashing mechanisms designed to rebrand fossil fuel dependency as compatible with a transition to a low-carbon economy in an attempt to delay more transformative changes.
Strategic Levers to Accelerate the Fossil Fuel Phaseout
Addressing petrochemicals at Santa Marta requires deploying targeted levers to accelerate the overall fossil fuel phaseout. One entry point is the sector’s current financial instability. Overcapacity in plastics has led to low utilization and slim margins, and plant closures. This provides a strategic opening to push for managed decline pathways rather than continued expansion.
Another lever involves debunking the greenwash that enables the build out of speculative and unnecessary ammonia projects. Driven largely by US subsidies, this expansion targets a shipping fuel market that does not yet exist. Challenging the false narrative of petrochemicals as “clean” energy — or as key to the transition — can also help prevent lock-in of petrochemical production and fossil infrastructure. Ultimately, eliminating this greenwash prevents a key way fossil interests escape from transition pressure and undermines a major growth source for the industry.
Protecting Human Rights Through a Just Transition
Centering human health provides a powerful synergy for a phaseout. Petrochemicals present a massive threat, with global health costs from plastic chemicals and nitrogen pollution estimated in the trillions of US dollars annually. Acknowledging the toxic impact of petrochemicals exposes the true cost of fossil fuels, establishes corporate liability, and builds the public pressure necessary to reform the laws that govern their production and use.
The petrochemical sector must be integrated into just transition discussions at Santa Marta and beyond to ensure the phaseout is just, rights-based, and fully resourced. Because petrochemicals are woven into so much of our daily lives, their decline must be carefully planned to protect human rights and global well-being. This requires deep systemic transformations of our economies to move beyond fossil fuel dependency while proactively protecting the people who depend on these systems and ensuring no one is left behind.
Only when petrochemicals are treated as a core part of the phaseout, can the fossil economy be uprooted in earnest, offering a pathway to a stable, resilient, and just future.